A Plan looks both backward in time and forward in time. A Safety Plan looks backward at what has happened and what is currently happening. Then it looks forward in time at what probably will happen. The element of probability often is a calculation with some difficulty. But from a simple point of view, examples can help. If I stand in traffic in a busy highway, would it be probable to be hit by a car or truck? Most of us would say yes, highways have high traffic occurrence. The probability is high.
On the other hand if we stand in a quiet side street, would we be hit? Slower, less frequent and more courteous traffic might lead us to say only maybe or even no. Lets change the problem to a fit and aware athlete. Would that change your conclusion? What about a small child or an elderly person with impaired vision?
Each factor changes the problem. In like manner, each facet of your operation might change the nature of your planning. For example how important is training? Can a well trained flight crew handle more difficult situations successfully? Is better maintained equipment a factor? Is technology important?
A plan must be a plan for success, one which guarantees success, one which enhances your chances of success to the highest level possible.
Forecasts are based on all the expected hazards. Some hazards are known, some suspected, some observed in other venues, some derived from events, some induced from reason and logic, and some deduced from clear evidence.
ReplyDeletePlans are created to address hazards with some form of recommendation for corrective action. That action can be direct or indirect, and can be an rapid, immediate response, or it can be an interim remediation for a short period to allow further planning, or lastly it can be a long term resolution, well thought out and engineered to change procedure, policy and other related management.