Bad Math by ICAO?

ICAO may be fostering bad mishap math. ICAO is stating that an increase in mishaps is attributable to an increase in flight operations. If that were so mathematically, than as any airline operated more flights and or flew more hours, their mishap rate would directly increase.

But that is not the case anecdotaly, statistically, case historically or in the experience of this pilot. The author of the ICAO report is looking for the reasons for more mishaps in the wrong place. This is critically important error on the part of ICAO, especially if everyone is trying to achieve the goal of reducing aviation mishaps. ICAO math would have us reducing flight operations in order to reduce the commercial mishap rate.

But is not our goal to solve the mathematical problem of mishaps and rates by finding methods of prevention? To do so, wouldn't you have to know what are the causes of mishaps in the first place?

It is my opinion that aviation mishaps are a direct result of unresolved hazards. The rate of mishap occurrence is therefore reducible by resolving hazards to aviation as quickly as possible. As the factors affecting the rate are reduced through Safety Procedures, the numbers of mishaps will be reduced. That in my opinion is the correct Safety Math.

Accident are therefore a mathematical function of unresolved hazards and are not a mathematical function of hours flown, nor of take-offs or other related operational factors. In my opinion ICAO is using bad math to address the issue of safety hazards and accident rates.

The correct safety math is therefore a function of how quickly we can eliminate hazards. As the rate of hazard occurrence and the actual numbers of hazards are reduced, then the rate of aviation mishaps disasters will be reduced. In fact, it is actually how rapidly we eliminate hazards that also counts, since a hazard over time results in heightened mishaps. Accident Rate is a direct function of unresolved hazards and nothing else.

Even though ICAO is not providing the mathematical or safety leadership needed globally to move commercial aviation safety in the correct and desired direction, it is my hope that many other safety minded managers are, and are doing so by regularly working to quickly resolve hazards to safe flight operations.

Best regards, Paul Miller



Wednesday, December 7, 2011
ICAO Issues Global Safety Report
Aviation accidents around the world ticked higher last year, attributable to the resurgence in air traffic, according to ICAO's inaugural State of Global Aviation Safety Report issued this week.

The number of accidents attributed to scheduled commercial flights increased in 2010 to 121, compared to 113 in 2009, resulting in an accident rate of 4.0 per million departures. The accident rate in 2009 was 3.9 per million departures. While the overall number of fatalities in 2010 was below those in 2005 and 2006, there has been an increase in fatalities over the past three years, ICAO said, increasing from 670 in 2009 to 707 in 2010.

At the same time, the number of scheduled commercial flights increased by 4.5 percent globally since 2009, which represents the first significant annual growth in the sector since 2007 and coincides with an increase of 4.2 percent in the global GDP. North America, which represents a third of global air transport traffic in terms of departures, was the only region to see a small decrease (0.6 percent) in its aggregate traffic figures.

"In the context of this period of renewed growth, and in light of anticipated increases in air travel, it is imperative to maintain a very strong focus on initiatives that will further improve safety outcomes in the future. ICAO is therefore continuously developing and refining more proactive and risk-based methods to further reduce the global accident rate, enabling the safe expansion of air travel in all regions," according to the report.

"ICAO is working in partnership with the international aviation community to achieve continuous reductions in the global accident rate, with an emphasis to improve safety performance in those regions experiencing significantly higher accident rates or having specific safety challenges."