Safety Forecasting???

Every field prepares and presents regular forecasts. The most common example of course is the daily weather forecast. We can make an activity plan for our day based on the weather forecast. But other f0recasts are equally important to us. Who doesn't listen to the sports forecast for the baseball or football season? Who doesn't listen to the financial forecasts, especially in these times? Production forecasts, crop forecasts, marketing forecasts, political forecasts-well the list goes on and on.

We all listen to forecasts to determine a plan of action.

But how about safety? How does we make a plan of action for safety activities? Do we make a plan of action? Or do we just re-act to circumstances? Are we the "tail being wagged by the dog" in most cases, when it comes to safety?

This blog is dedicated to safety professionals, managers who have to make a plan to keep their organizations running smoothly without losses due to injury and material damage.

I hope that we can share our ideas and make our organizations safer each day through forecasting and planning. Welcome aboard!!

Safety Forecasting and Planning

Safety Managers need an annual safety plan. How else can a safety manager stay ahead of problems affecting operational safety? But a plan must have its basis in a forecast of things to come. But how can a safety manager forecast safety problems if they have not occurred? This is the purpose of this blog. This blog will recommend methods for creating an annual safety forecast and from this basis, the safety manager will have a way to create an annual safety plan.

One of the best ways to maintain a mishap free operation is to maintain a vigorous safety forecast and a robust annual safety plan. The work put into the forecast and plan will be enormous. But the work put into mishap investigations is staggering, often fruitless and always time late.
So join the discussion with me as we share ways to create your own safety forecast and from it, your own safety plan. Paul Miller

Plans

A Plan looks both backward in time and forward in time. A Safety Plan looks backward at what has happened and what is currently happening. Then it looks forward in time at what probably will happen. The element of probability often is a calculation with some difficulty. But from a simple point of view, examples can help. If I stand in traffic in a busy highway, would it be probable to be hit by a car or truck? Most of us would say yes, highways have high traffic occurrence. The probability is high.
On the other hand if we stand in a quiet side street, would we be hit? Slower, less frequent and more courteous traffic might lead us to say only maybe or even no. Lets change the problem to a fit and aware athlete. Would that change your conclusion? What about a small child or an elderly person with impaired vision?
Each factor changes the problem. In like manner, each facet of your operation might change the nature of your planning. For example how important is training? Can a well trained flight crew handle more difficult situations successfully? Is better maintained equipment a factor? Is technology important?
A plan must be a plan for success, one which guarantees success, one which enhances your chances of success to the highest level possible.